In any society which has to make arrangements for a continuous supply of commodities, trading activity cannot be confined to the immediate present needs. Forward contracts evolved in the early stages of development of mercantile activity to cater to the needs of a manufacturer, processor or producer to ensure that he gets his supplies of raw material at the appropriate time. Such forward contracts provide for giving and taking actual delivery of goods at a specified price and a specified future date.
The futures or hedge contracts were evolved at a later stage to enable the various functionaries engaged in merchandising a commodity, or its processed products, to protect themselves against the risk of unpredictable price fluctuations over time in the commodity or its products.
In the study it is proposed to study the price determination for exchange traded commodity and forecasting its future prices based on the different mathematical tools available.
Introduction: Statement of the problem
In India, soybean or soya bean is a Kharif crop. India ranking is 5th largest producer of soybean in the world. The country Production is approximately 9.67 million tons of soybeans in 2009/10 in India and in 2012/13 the soybean produced 11.34 million tonnes. The states of Rajasthan, MP and Maharashtra contributed 95% of the total soybean produced in India. The United States., Brazil, Argentina, India and China are the world's largest soybean producers and they represent more than 90% of world soybean production. The U.S. exported over approximate 90% of the world's soybeans production. By 2005, the top soybeans importers European Union (22%), China (41% of world soybean imports), Japan (6%) and Mexico (6%) and
Exporters were United States (37%), Brazil (16%), and Argentina (39%) of world soybean exports.
The soybean (Glycine max) is known as the 20th century “Golden Bean”. Soybean is the most cultivated oilseed in the world. It is the world's major provider of oil and protein. Soybeans contain around 45% of proteins and 18% of oil. It contains essential amino acids in significant amount so It is a good source of protein. For consumers as well as for the producer instability of commodity prices has always been a major concern in an agriculture dominated country like India. It is too risky for them for them to invest in otherwise profitable activities because of farmer’s direct exposure to price fluctuations. To cope with this problem there are various ways. Various actors through derivative markets in the farm sector can better manage their activities in an environment of unstable prices, thwarting the market mechanism by direct government intervention can increases the stability of the market. Instead of relying on uncertain price developments these markets serve a risk-shifting function and can be used to lock-in prices.
In the context of commodity forecasts, a more relevant measure of accuracy is
the ability of a forecasting...