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Analyzing The Structure And Perfomance Of The Irish Trade And The World Trade

4986 words - 20 pages

NameStudent ID:Course: EF 310, International Trade & BusinessLecturer:Word Count:Date: Friday, 14th NovemberIntroductionTo start analyzing the structure and the performance of the Irish trade, first of all we need to look at Irish GNP for the year compared with the previous years. 2007 was another positive year in the Irish economy. According to CSO, 2007 comparing with 2006, GNP value rise by 5.7% and GNP per capita rise by 3.3%. However, in 2006 compared with 2005, GNP value rises by 11% and GNP per capita rise by 8.3%. It indicates us a warning because the rate of increasing in GNP is falling that can lead to decrease in GNP by 2009 comparing with 2008. The reason is well known that ...view middle of the document...

2

30150.1

43066.3

2006 Q3-Q4

12998.4

30707.3

43705.7

2007 Q1-Q2

14072.7

31405.8

45478.5

2007 Q3-Q4

11667.7

32079.9

43747.6

2008 Q1-Q2

13601.9

30149.6

43751.5

More in detail, I wanted to show that items playing significant role for our current and capital accounts. I gathered information from CSO and represented it in my charts that shows different items and it` role in our accounts. The most positive players in our current and capital accounts is merchandise of course that brought 11.8 billion surplus for the Irish economy in the first half year in the 2008 and it`s accounted as 8.7 % of the total surplus in the current and capital accounts for the first two quarters. However, Irish merchandise exporters felt the full impact of the economic downturn in global markets and lost 5% of export value in the first half of year.Surplus Items in the Current & Capital Accounts in the Q1 & Q2 for 2008Deficit Items in the Current & Capital Accounts in the Q1 & Q2 for 2008To talk mainly about export, I need to mention Services sector as it totalled 33.1 billion euro for the first six months, and it is up 4.9% on the same period of 2007. Services exporters also saw a reduction in demand but still remained in growth mood. To get a better understanding about the exports and imports analysis we need to look forward in the second half of the year. As cited in the www.irishexporters.ie'The outlook for the second half of the year is heavily dependent on whether there will be a recovery in the value of the US dollar and UK pound starling versus the euro. But it is also verydependent on the general economic conditions in our main trading markets. In this regard, a successful conclusion to the WTO Doha Round discussions in Geneva in July/August will give a strong impetus to world trade and with it greater demand for Irish exports of goods and services.With these caveats the best case scenario forecast for the second half of the year is as follows;
€ million

2007
Actual
Jun-
Dec

2008
Forecast
Jun-Dec

Difference

%
Change

Merchandise

43,265

40,000

-3,265

- 7.5%

Services

34.634

35.500

+0.866

+ 2.5%

TOTAL

77,899

75,500

-2.399

- 3.1%

For the year as a whole the IEA forecast is therefore;>Total Merchandise exports for 2008 of 83,390 million.>Total Services exports for 2008 of 68,576 million.Giving an overall total export for 2008 forecast to be 152 billion euro. This is 1% below the 2007 figure for total exports, but 8 billion or 6 % up on the 2006 figures.'[3: http://www.irishexporters.ie/artman_new/uploads/iea_half_year_review_2008.pdf]Irish economy is doing very well with the computer services. For the first half of the year it brought 11.5 billion surplus compared with the 10.4 billion surplus for the same period in 2007. And it seems to be rise further as exports in 2007 increased by 17.9% compared with 2006. The reason for that would be that many international...

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