Empirical findings show that access to adequate and sufficient food in developing countries is unstable, suggesting that whether a household or individual is food secure at any point in time is best thought of in a dynamic sense. Yet the more widely used food security analysis methods mainly consider current access to food, failing to provide policy makers with forward‐looking information.
Concurrently, in most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in general and in Ethiopia in particular, households’ capacity to manage risks is especially low due to multiple stressors coupled with a poor asset base making them particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. In order to reduce the threat of future food insecurity, policy design should address the uncertainty that households face alongside their risk‐management options through dynamic analysis.
The main objective of this study is therefore to assess vulnerability of households to food insecurity among two districts in southern Ethiopia. The study also aims to investigate determinants of vulnerability to food insecurity. Building on recent methodologies in risk management, the study will analyse vulnerability in dynamic approach using both cross-sectional and panel data collected over two phase. Determinants of vulnerability to food insecurity will be analysed using rigorous multinomial regression modeling.
It is hoped that the output of this study will improve both policy and methodological practices in that it is explicitly dynamic and forward-looking. Thus, it examines food insecurity as ex ante, rather than an ex post outcome. Moreover, the analysis will be carried out in a stochastic framework and can therefore fully consider the uncertainties associated with future food insecurity such as the role of external shocks and the strategies that households, communities or policies as well as public institutions can adopt in order to reduce the likelihood of negative outcomes.
In most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in general and in Ethiopia in particular, households’ capacity to manage risks is especially low due to multiple stressors coupled with a poor asset base, making them particularly vulnerable to poverty and food insecurity. In order to reduce the threat of future food insecurity/ poverty, policy design should address the uncertainty that households face alongside their risk‐management options through dynamic analysis. In contrast to this logic, however, widely used food security and poverty policies are based mainly on static rather than dynamic analysis.
Poverty and food security policies and interventions based on static analysis do not capture the imminent needs of a potentially large share of the population that is likely to change its food security status in the near future. These include currently food secure households that may become food insecure in the near future and, on the other hand, households that are likely to overcome a currently food insecure...