This website uses cookies to ensure you have the best experience. Learn more

Economic Indicator Forecast Essay

1528 words - 6 pages

Abstract"If you come to a fork in the road, take it." (Yogi Berra). The ambiguity of this popular quote seems to epitomize the pervading sentiment of economists in the U.S. and abroad; we are headed for global economic change. As tension and uncertainty mount in the Middle East, crude prices have run the gamut of consumer expectation, yet even now, nearly six years after 9/11, there remains a vast uncertainty when and where crude prices will settle. This paper will examine several economic indicators as each pertains to and/or is affected by the crude oil industry. Economic forecasts from numerous sources for each indicator are examined in an effort to develop an 18-month forecast specific to the crude oil industry.Crude Oil Economic Indicator ForecastIn an ever-changing world, analyzing historical data in an effort to glean some certainty about the future seems easy enough in theory: political and civil unrest historically result in revolution; scientific advancements historically result in a better quality of life. So what of historical macroeconomic trends? The Federal Open Market Committee in 2005 predicted moderate GDP growth, higher unemployment, and higher interest rates in 2006 based on historical data; they were very close on all accounts (Economic Advisory Committee, 2006). Nonetheless, Ben Bernanke noted in his testimony before Congress "… economic forecasting is far from a precise science, we have no choice but to regard all our forecasts as provisional and subject to revision as the facts demand" (Economic Advisory Committee, 2006). With this caveat firmly ingrained, this paper will examine several economic indicators and attempt to forecast future trends over a period of 18 months.Retail SalesThe National Retail Federation (NRF) released its conservative yet optimistic 2007 forecast in early January predicting slower growth in the retail sales industry (excluding automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants); the world's largest retail trade association expects retail sales will increase 4.8 percent from last year (Grannis & Krugman, 2007). According to its quarterly Retail Sales Outlook, subdued first-half economic growth will to give way to accelerated sales in the second half (National Retail Federation, 2007). This is the opposite of what occurred in 2006 (with a 6.3 percent overall increase), which began with higher-than-expected retail activity in the first two quarters followed by a sharp decline as the housing market stagnated and faltered and gas prices began to rise again despite leveling off after the summer traveling season. While retail sales on the whole are expected to increase due to purchases such as apparel, health and beauty products, and food and beverage, large-ticket home-related purchases such as building supplies and gardening equipment will continue to decrease as the home market softens further and energy prices remain uncertain (Grannis & Krugman, 2007).The National Association of...

Find Another Essay On Economic Indicator Forecast

Economic Indicator Paper

778 words - 3 pages nearly even to where it's current level of 154.4 Producer Price Index: All Commodities This chart is forecasting the PPI to be around 155.1 in the fourth quarter. U.S. Producer Price Index, PPI, Forecast. All Commodities, NSA. 1982=100.Retail Sales: Retail sales are an important economic indicator because consumer spending drives much of our economy. Think of all of the people and companies involved in producing, distributing, and selling the goods

The Airlines Industry and Economic Indicators Forecast

1428 words - 6 pages a few economic indicators and their forecast of future trends.Managers, investors, stockholder and stakeholders usually review the forecast of economic indicator before making a business decision. The unemployment rate is a prime indicator of that effects many businesses today. In the airline industry when unemployment is at an all time high it forces airlines to reduce ticket prices to affordable rates to attract people to take more vacations

Economic Analysis of the Home Building Industry

4262 words - 17 pages considered to be a leading economic indicator. One house or one apartment is considered one housing start. A building with 150 apartments would be counted as 150 housing starts. A decline in the housing start data may reflect a slow down of the economy. The housing start data is collected from applications and permits for home building every season. Recent figures posted show that housing starts for April, May, and June were 2,027; 2,004; and

International trade concepts simulation

1961 words - 8 pages Economic Indicator Forecast PaperEconomic indicators of forecasting are the key tools used by the government, organizations, and companies to track the market trends. Economic indicators are generally used to analyze the market movement, track the fast moving market trends, and a tracking or predicting tool to view the progress of the future market trend versus the past market trends. The six economic indicators in which will be discussed is

Accumulation Index

2815 words - 11 pages Bands are used similarly to Bollinger-bands, offering trading opportunities when price moves beyond the fractal lines. High Minus Low High minus Low is a linear indicator showing the difference between the high and low of the bar. Using trend lines and looking for breakouts can yield profitable situations. Linear Regression Forecast Linear Regression is a statistical measurement that attempts to determine the strength of the

Identifying Long Term Trends

1262 words - 6 pages on which direction the market is heading. The first variable mentioned above was the Gross Domestic Product, and is one of the most important variables. GDP is most commonly used as an indicator of the economic health of a country, as well as a way to gauge a country's standard of living. Gross domestic product is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period; usually

Economic Indicators

2670 words - 11 pages free from discrimination." The FHA was then incorporated into the HUD helping to cover long-term mortgages which guaranteed that the loans were paid back to the banks.New housing construction and building permits is an economic indicator. They are used to measure and estimate the amount of people who are buying new homes. The residential housing business is also part of the principal indicator that economist developed "that indicate when a

Topics for Economics Development

985 words - 4 pages and $16,041 in 2007). The country's GDP growth rate in 2004 was 6.2 percent, following a 13.2 percent GDP growth rate in 2003. The country's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2005 was 6.2 percent. Strong growth in Trinidad and Tobago over the past few years has led to trade surpluses. Many economic reports have assured positive growth for the economy. The Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report has indicated that economic outlook for

Economics Indicator

433 words - 2 pages In this paper the GDP will be forecasted on what the economic indicator will be six months from now, one year from now, and well into the future. These indicators will show how the economy stands in the United States and who they will affect and how these different indicators can affect the economy. The forecast of these indicators will make us aware of which direction the economy could go. The GDP measurements over the next few years can tell

Veteran Unemployment

2242 words - 9 pages being turned away due to a lack of funds. Also these officials would know during which times it would be most beneficial for them to recruit veterans. For both of these organizations, an accurate forecast would allow them to more effectively address the problem of veteran unemployment. There are four variables that can help explain the monthly variation in the veteran unemployment rate. The first variable is the U.S Government hiring rate. Veterans

Main Economic Forecasts

5838 words - 23 pages compared to the administration’s forecast. An accurate prediction of two-year growth in real output is the most important factor in minimizing errors when forecasting the deficit for the budget year. The reason is, given current laws and level of national debt, inflation increases both revenues and outlays by similar amounts. According to a study conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the monthly Blue Chip Economic Indicator Survey ranks

Similar Essays

Economic Indicator Forecast Essay

2181 words - 9 pages Economic Indicator ForecastThe six economic indicators of housing starts, mortgage rates, retail sales, interest rates, personal income and the foreign exchange rate. Will discuss each economic indicator and compare and contrast two different 18-month forecasts for each. The differences between the forecasts will be analyzed and the reasons why we believe one forecast over another.Housing StartsThe home building industry has been doing very well

Economic Indicators Paper Bus Econ I

1162 words - 5 pages (Financial Forecast Center, 2008 & National Association of Realtors, 2008).Inflation Rate. The inflation rate is a strong economic indicator, as it is the continual rise in price level (Colander, 2006). Therefore, inflation rates affect the home building industry by leading to higher interest rates on mortgages. Currently, the inflation rate is 2.4% for the home building industry. The review of two separate economic forecasts reveals the

Economic Indicators Forecast Essay

1654 words - 7 pages current data, historical trends, and future developments gives the users the power to compare the predicted forecast for a specific indicator to their best guess to allow for a better understanding of the economy and trends that drive its progress.ReferencesNAHB, (2007). Economic forecasts. Retrieved November 9, 2007,from National Association of Home Builders Web site:, (2007). Housing and

Economic Indicator Forecasts: Housing Industry Essay

1582 words - 6 pages Housing StartsHousing starts as an economic indicator, can say a variety of things about an economy. The effects of housing starts can attribute to the measurement of spending, buying habits, interest rates, and much more within any given society. Finding a specific monthly forecast of housing starts is challenging, but not impossible. Most of the web searches our team found, would only offer a forecast that goes out six months. As we looked for