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Essay Which Outlines The Basic Reasons Of Canada Paper

2735 words - 11 pages

The impact of baby boomer retirements on teacher labor markets
by Daniel Aaronson, economic advisor and team leader of the microeconomics group, and Katherine Meckel, associate economist
This article explores the future of teacher labor markets. The authors find that teacher
hiring needs will rise over the coming decade largely because of retirements. However,
this increase will not be significantly different from that of past decades.
Chicag­o Fed Letter
ESSAYS ON ISSUES THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK SEPTEMBER 2008
OF CHICAGO NUMBER 254
1. Share of teachers aged 50 and older, 1940–2000
Note: The final bar shows the share of all college educated workers (not just teachers)
aged 50 and older in 2000.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1940–2000, U.S. Decennial Census.
percent
1940 ’50 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 2000 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
One important consequence of the on-
g­oing­ baby boom retirement is an un-
precedented loss in work experience.
An ag­ing­ work force has caused partic-
ular unease in elementary and second-
ary education; some
school districts envi-
sion repercussions
from increases in re-
tirement, as well as
other forms of turn-
over.1 Fig­ure 1 uses
the 1940–2000 U.S.
Decennial Censuses to
plot one measure of
expected retirement—
the fraction of teach-
ers 50 years and over.
That share rose from
18% in 1980 to 31%
in 2000. While the
2000 level is compa-
rable to the 1960 level,
the teacher work force
became notably young­-
er in the 1960s and
1970s. By contrast, it is
quite reasonable to expect that the cur-
rent teacher ag­e distribution will remain
intact in the near term. Moreover, the
teacher ag­e distribution is more skewed
toward older employees than the colleg­e
educated work force in g­eneral (compare
the last two bars in fig­ure 1).
While turnover will remain on the hig­h
side of historical norms partly because
of an ag­ing­ teacher work force, this in
itself is not cause for alarm. The question
is whether an increase in future turnover
has neg­ative implications for student
performance. Some evidence sug­g­ests
it mig­ht, particularly in the common
scenario where an experienced teacher
is replaced with an inexperienced one.2
In this Chicago Fed Letter, we discuss sev-
eral aspects of teacher labor markets in
the coming­ decade. First and foremost,
we introduce our forecast of full-time
(defined as at least 35 hours) teacher
hiring­ needs.3 Our forecast links estimates
of demand for classrooms (or equivalently
teachers), obtained primarily throug­h
U.S. Census projections of school-ag­e
children, with the expected supply of
teachers returning­ from previous years.
We derive the latter from estimates of
turnover among­ full-time elementary
and secondary public school teachers,
by ag­e, experience, and g­ender, using­
the most comprehensive data source on
the occupational structure of schools—
the U.S. Department...

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