Handboek Scenarioplanning Essay

1459 words - 6 pages

Deel 1
Hst 1
Risico: geeft aan dat er een kans is op een bepaald effect (risico = kans x effect) Typologie van zeker naar onzeker
· Onoverkomelijke zaken: zaken, die een logisch gevolg zijn van de uitwerking van trends, discontinuiteiten of controversies.
· Trend: een partroon dat ontstaat als een lange termijn van historische data in beschouwing wordt genomen.
· Discontinuiteit: een, mogelijk onverwachte, tijdelijke of permanente, breuk in een dominante conditie/trend in een systeem. Geleidelijke discontinuiteit (warning signals): een discontinuiteit waardoor de verschuivin van een paradigma naar een ander paradigma geleidelijk verloopt. Abrupte discontinuiteit (wildcards): een discontinuiteit die zeer plotseling optreedt. Dit gebeurt zo snel dat het systeem niet meer kan stabiliseren (9/11).
· Controversie: een stelling die idealiter 50/50 verdeeld is. Het kan wel gebeuren, maar net zo goed niet.
Paradigma: modellen en theoriën die een denkkader vormen van datgene wat jij/wij/de samenleving als 'werkelijkheid' beschouwen.
Hst 2
Ideaaltypische scenario's:
- Extrapolerende scenario's: wat zal er gebeuren - Normatieve scenario's: wat gebeurt er (je stelt de toekomst van tevoren vast, waarbij je
vervolgens gaat terugberedeneren). - Explorerende scenario's: wat kan er mogelijk gebeuren (exploratieve externe
omgevingsscenario's à waar heb je zelf geen grip op, exploratieve strategische scenario's à interne controle, exploratieve systeemscenario's à een mix van externe en strategisch)
- Sciencefictionscenario's: maximale toekomstspeculatie
Hst 3
Scenarioplanning: een instrument waarbij je scenario's ontwikkelt om de toekomst te verkennen. Dit
met als doel in een organisatie strategische beslissingen effectiever en efficiënter te kunnen nemen. Bij scenarioleren gaat het in eerste instantie om het creëren van strategische awareness. Het gaat hier vooral om een gezamenlijk proces dat, door juist te bezinnen op de toekomst, inzichten met zich meebrengt. Scenarioplanning gebruikt deze verwonderingen om vervolgens bestaande strategieën te evalueren of nieuwe strategieën te ontwikkelen. De grondslag van scenarioleren is scenariodenken. Dit bestaat uit een aantal basisprincipes die beogen scenario's ze te ontwikkelen dat ze hout snijden
in het kader van het doel waarvoor je ze wilt gebruiken. Planning: zich bezig houden met het van te voren nadenken over toekomstige keuzes. Tijdens het planningsproces worden heel wat afwegingen gemaakt.

Tegenhanger van plannen à ad hoc werken: op een korte termijn te beslissen over iets wat je niet had voorzien. Strategie à lange termijn à globale doelstellingen Tactiek à middellange termijn à specifieker Operatie à korte termijn à specifieke doelstellingen Één gevaar bij plannen: verstarring: mensen kunnen er zo op gefocust zijn gestelde doelen te behalen dat ze...

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