How Crime-Forecasting Software and the Principles of Psychology Work Together
Researchers have come up with an innovative way of predicting crime by the use of Crime Forecasting Software. The software is meant to enable the security agencies to maximize their effectiveness in dealing with crime within their specific area of responsibility using limited resources. It goes beyond the convectional hot spot analysis and evaluates both spatial and temporal attributes in incident data. With the result, it creates a forecast map of areas where and when crime is likely to occur. It comes with an integrated map viewer to help visualize crime hotspots every moment of the day. It creates forecast models from latest crime data from Records management systems or Computer aided Dispatch.
The crime forecasting software conducts spatial analyses on data that shows relationship between crime and element of physical and social surroundings in areas where crime occur. This enables the security agencies to act proactively and stop crime before it occurs. The software uses several tools to predict the likelihood of a crime occurring. Most of these tools mimic tools used in principles of psychology. Let us look at some of the tools and their relationship with principles of psychology.
1. Univariate methods
These methods use previous values of a variable to predict its value in the future. They give a straightforward value. The method uses one variable that requires data collection. Models are created from the variable and the resulting pattern is then analysed. A common model used by police is called ‘naive lag 12’. The method predicts events where there frequent change in patterns. After analysing the model, Police able to explain changes in crime trends and predict future crime patterns. These methods...