I have chosen three relevant articles that I have summarised and reviewed in order to achieving my research aim. Two of the three articles support the hypothesis that civil war is indeed the reason of increasing prices of oil and the other articles states that there are other forces that affect the pricing of petrol especially when looked at in a local point of view.
Articles FOR research hypothesis
The main country that South Africa imports its oil from is Saudi Arabia, a neighbouring country to Syria. Syria is said to have gone through civil unrest beginning of 2011, this unrest has gone on till this day. The reasons for this these wars are usually based on government instability and bad leadership. The government of Syria used chemical weapons against its own people; this caused the uprising of rebel forces. Even though Saudi Arabia is much too stable to be affected by issues in Syria, the tensions caused the oil prices to elevate this is due to the fact that the markets have evaluated the situation and fear that disruption of supply is a possibility which entails that Oil won’t get delivered to its destination, therefore making the supply low and the demand high. Ingrid Pan of the Market Realist writes: “Military action in Syria has the potential to disrupt normal oil production and transportation operations throughout the Middle East” Even though an Intervention by the United States of America in Syria has nothing to do with Saudi Arabian matters, it still has the potential to disrupt the operations and systems put in place to produce petrol, to export Crude Oil and to transport it, it may not be a certain reading of the situation however Oil is such an essential resource that precautions have always got to be set in place, should such issues break out. Countries such as the United States of America (USA) have seen this turmoil in Syria and have decided to intervene. This intervention could be seen as both a positive and a negative, it is a negative as the disruption of Oil transportation could be sent to an all-time high, as locals and the government may not welcome the intrusion by the USA. This then means that there will only be more disruptions which will always a rippling effect on the entire world. An example is last year when South Africa experienced a petrol shortage, the intervention in Syria by the USA may not have been the direct cause of this shortage but it certainly played a part, thus further proving the rippling effect that socioeconomic problems have on the trading of Oil. There is however a positive to other countries intervening on the civil wars in the Middle East. If governments seek the assistance of other countries such as the USA in order to bring civil wars to an end, this could greatly decrease the possibilities of supply disruptions because there would be cooperation between forces trying to ensure the safe transportation of Crude Oil.
The article written by Ingrid Pan for the Market realist was quite one...