Global Prevalence of Diabetes Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030
SARAH WILD, MB BCHIR, PHD1
GOJKA ROGLIC, MD2
ANDERS GREEN, MD, PHD, DR MED SCI3
RICHARD SICREE, MBBS, MPH4
HILARY KING, MD, DSC2
OBJECTIVE - The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations' population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries.
RESULTS - The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people 65 years of age.
CONCLUSIONS - These findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
Diabetes Care 27:1047-1053, 2004
The number of people with diabetesis increasing due to populationgrowth, aging, urbanization, and in- creasing prevalence of obesity and physi- cal inactivity. Quantifying the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people af- fected by diabetes, now and in the future, is important to allow rational planning and allocation of resources.
Estimates of current and future dia- betes prevalence have been published previously (1-3). Since these reports ap-
peared, further epidemiological data have become available for several countries in Africa and the Middle East and for India. The sources of these data are identified in Table 1.
This report provides estimates of the global prevalence of diabetes in the year 2000 (as used in the World Health Orga- nization [WHO] Global Burden of Dis- ease Study) and projections for 2030. It provides a sequel to the report describing estimates of the global burden of diabetes
in 1990 (2) using newer data and different methods for estimating age-specific prev- alence. As before, the estimates are based on demographic changes alone with the conservative assumption that other risk factor levels such as obesity and physical activity remain constant (in developed countries) or are accounted for by urban- ization (in less developed countries). The current estimates include all age-groups, and age-specific data are presented (on- line appendix [available at http://care. diabetesjournals.org]) to...