To clarify, the six oil super majors are British Petroleum (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (Shell), ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Total S.A (Total) (Eastwood, 2011). The term ‘super-majors’ refers to the six biggest and most influential non-state owned multinational oil companies according to cash flows, profit, and market capitalization (Forbes, 2011). It was important that all companies were listed on the same market index. ConocoPhillips, Chevron and Exxon Mobil have primary listings on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and are thus all components of the NYSE Composite Index. However, both BP and Shell have primary listings on the FTSE100 whilst Total’s primary listing is on the CAC40. Therefore, for the purpose of this Event Study, I will be using the secondary NYSE Composite Index listings of BP, Shell (Share B) and Total. Therefore, all share prices are commonly denoted in US dollars.
Another aspect of the paper is the choice of what countries to include in my study. I define the MENA region as the Middle East and North Africa as shown in the picture of the geographical area in Appendix 1.1. I have chosen to focus on 10 countries that are the biggest oil producing nations within the MENA region. These are the following: Saudi Arabia (13.3% of world oil production), Iran (4.2%), Iraq (3.7%), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (3.7%), Kuwait (3.7%), Qatar (2%), Algeria (1.8%), Libya (1.7%), Oman (1.1%) and Egypt (0.9%) (BP Statistical Review, 2013).
In addition, I picked 10 countries from outside the MENA region that the biggest oil producing nations in their respective regions to compare my MENA results with. I picked two countries from Asia not including Middle East (China and Russia ), two countries from North America (USA and Canada), two countries from Central/South America (Venezuela and Mexico), two countries from sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and Angola), and two countries from Europe (Norway and UK) to get a cross-section of all parts of the world to cover the ‘other graphical areas’ part of my question. The reason why Australasia has been discounted from my sample is because the highest oil producing country in that region, Australia, was ranked 31st according to the CIA World Factbook (CIA
World Factbook, 2013). Other areas of the world produce more oil that Australasia, so I felt it was necessary to discount that region to examine more relevant countries. Please refer to Appendix 1.2 for oil production as a percentage of total global production for each of these non-MENA countries.
Over the course of this paper, I will be looking at how specific parts of my question relate to past literature and also provide an in depth methodology that I will be using when conducting these Market Model Event Studies and the drawbacks of the Event Study Methodology. I will then discuss my results with respect to each geographical area, to come to a conclusion to my main question as to whether MENA or non-MENA political events affect the share...