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Statistics Assignment

914 words - 4 pages

Executive SummaryAlthough it is difficult to predict the probability of success for a movie before it has been created, there are factors in previous movies that have been considered. The quality of the movie and appeal of the story line are obvious influences but are difficult to measure. This report analyses the influence of some measurable factors in the ratings of TV movies. It examines the importance of a movie being fact or fiction on the ratings. A decision must be made whether or not Edgar Scherick should invest $10,000 in a fact based movie or should pitch a fictional movie with no fee for the rights. If the pitch is successful Scherick could obtain $500,000 - $600,000 in compensation.The investment is less than 2% of the possible compensation. It is my recommendation that the producer therefore invest the $10,000 as the percentage chance of getting higher ratings on a fact based movie is higher than on a fictional one. The producer has been unsuccessful pitching fictional movies in the past and has a greater chance with a fact movie.My findings are the following*The network, the day of the week and the month of broadcast all have low correlation with the ratings*Having a star in the movie will have a high probability of increasing the ratings*The rating of the show before has a significant effect on the ratings*NBC's ratings are the least effected by fact or fiction out of the three major networks*ABC's ratings are the most effected by fact or fiction*There is a positive effect on the ratings of all stations by using a fact for the movie storyline*As the other two network's ratings are more influenced by the fact of fiction, if NBC does not accept the story there will be a higher probability of the other networks accepting the story if it is based on factThe ModelThe NBC executives use Rating as a measure of the success of a movie. Therefore the estimated rating will be the factor in determining if a fact movie or fiction will most likely be selected. Each Network operates independently and has a different programming strategy and therefore are considered individually. Scherick will be pitching his idea to NBC first. It is important to understand the effects on the ratings for the NBC Network primarily.The model for each Network's rating prediction is as followsNBC= 12.875 + 0.535 (F) + 1.151(S)ABC= 9.3 + 4.25 (F) + 1.95 (S)CBS= 13.786 + 1.478 (F) + 1.541(S)If the movie is based on a true story F = 1If the movie is based on a fictional story F = 0S= the number of stars in the movie paid over $300,000There are several factors that will influence the rating of a movie that are impossible to predict until the production or the screening. Factors include exceptional acting or a particular appeal of the screenplay. Random events such as a national news crisis will also affect the ratings. Therefore, I have eliminated certain data points that did not align with the model. Please see Exhibits 1 - 3 for the residual plots of the equations. You...

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