Technology Forecasting Essay

1156 words - 5 pages

According to the January 21, 2002 revision of the official Internet DVD FAQ for the rec.video.dvd Usernet newsgroups, DVD's have sold faster than videotape, CD, and laserdisc. In fact, before its third birthday in March 2000, DVD had become the most successful consumer electronics entertainment product ever. If you have entered into a Blockbuster Video retal store lately, this conclusion about the DVD market is apparent with the ever-growing stock of new releases on DVD. At this rapid pace, where can we see the population usage of DVD's in the year 2010? Using a historical anology will help us determine the necessary forecast for the DVD population by comparing it to VCR sales. Originally, VCR's were brought into the market so that consumers could tape television programs. The idea of using a VCR to watch a VHS movie was not planned into this product's introduction. In the early 1980's, at the VCR's introduction, the machine sold for over a thousand dollars. After the adopters, following the innovators who paid high prices and took chances, the majority began to purchase VCR's. Also, before the eighties, new technologies were unfamiliar to the majority of Americans who survived their whole lives with little or no technology. Just a decade ago, in the early seventies, the calculator was introduced as an alternative to basic rulers and adding machines. This difference deterrs our comparison of the evolution of DVD's to VCR's due to the fact that the market today is more accepting, knowlegable, and excited by new technologies than it was 20 years ago.However, the idea behind the VCR and the DVD is similar. The viewer can watch movies in the privacy of their own home, with an option to start and stop the movie whenever they choose. Because VCR's are so popular, we can see that this type of passive entertainment succeeds. With most DVD's there is an option for the active viewer as well who wants to participate interactively. With deleted scenes, directior's commentaries, and alternate endings, DVD's appeal to those viewers who need a little activity. The sharper image and added extras are enough to call the DVD player a new and improved version of the VCR. Also, DVD's are increasing in video stores and viewers now have more choices, and can even watch old classics with an improved picture. Because DVD players surpass VCR's in almost every aspect, we can predict that the acception rate of DVD players among consumers will be greater than the latter.How compatible are DVD players to the consumer? So far, there are no complaints about these machines. Consumers were hesitent to replace their VCR's with DVD players or were not about to be inconvienienced by yet another box on their television. To obtain these customers, manufacturers have introduced the DVD/VHS players so that the viewer can use both methods simultaneously.The current DVD players are relatively complex to those unexperienced in technology. Many consumers who are not accepting of newer...

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