In this paper we will analyze an article about the population growth, written by Sanjeev Sanyal in 2011. We will start describing what the stages of the demographic transition are and we will focus on the third one that is the one analyzed in the article. As the main issue of the article is why population growth is declining in developing countries, we will analyze the link between development and population growth. We will take in account the policies that can be implemented to achieve the goal of controlling population growth. Related to this, we will particularly focus on China’s one-child police underlining what the problems linked to this policy are. As a final stage of our analysis we will take in account the role of developed countries in the demographic transition of developing ones.
The article written by Sanjeev Sanyal analyzes the fact that the forecasts about the population growth in 2050 are not reliable because they misrepresent the demographic dynamics.
In most countries, especially in developing ones, national censuses have revealed that fertility rates are plunging and that, reproductively speaking; our species should no longer be expanding. The TFR for most developed countries now stands well below replacement levels and the biggest TFR declines in recent years have been in developing countries. The article considers the particular case of India and China where an additional factor could depress future birth rates: the gender ratio at birth is higher for boys than girls and the future scarcity of women implies that both countries’ effective reproductive capacity is below what is suggested by the unadjusted TFR. Continuing on analyzing especially India and China the article tries to explain how population growth’s dynamic affects the workforce’s structure, underlining that the labor force has peaked or is close to peaking in most major economies, thus many developed countries will have to consider how to keep people working productively well into their seventies. To conclude Sanjeev Sanyal remarks that even if the decline in the population growth after the peak in the 2050’s seemed to be a good thing in view of the planet’s limited carrying capacity, there will be new problems to face.
The main issue proposed in the article is that population it is not growing as much as we think, it may keep growing until mid-century, owing to rising longevity, but, reproductively speaking, our species should no longer be expanding. This is due mostly to the fact that birth rates in developing countries are falling rapidly. Therefore the question should be why there is a decline in the total fertility rate of developing countries and what consequences will be induced by this occurrence.
If we start from the history of population growth we can see that the process by which fertility rates eventually decline to replacement levels has been portrayed by a famous concept in economic demography called the demographic...