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This Essay Describes The Economic Political Cycles In The United States Over The Last 50 Years In Reference To Democratic And Republican Parties

4646 words - 19 pages

This paper will study the effects of Presidential regimes from 1959 onwards. It well use the partisan theory and show the correlation between left wing (democratic) parties and low unemployment rates, as well as the correlation between right wing (republican) parties and low inflation rates. This correlation will help show the effects of different presidential regimes on the U.S. economy. I believe that the partisan model will hold true and that during republican presidencies we will see a low or decreasing level of inflation, and during democratic presidencies we will see a low or decreasing level of unemployment In this paper we will analyze the presidential regimes from 1959 onwards, and by using the partisan model, we will show that democratic presidents have a trend towards keeping unemployment low and that republicans have a preference towards keeping inflation low or closer to its natural rate.Although we do not observe a systematic surge in growth output in election years, this does not imply that economic conditions are not an important determinant of election results. The characteristics of their political cycle depends on the nature of the party system, thus the partisan model will provide a better way of looking at the U.S. political business cycle. The partisan model is more clearly identifiable in governments with a two party system. We can make two basic assumptions:1) Inflation is usually higher when the left wing presidents are in office, in comparison to when a right wing president is in office.2) Short-run effects of a partisan model are that unemployment is temporarily below normal and economic growth temporarily higher than normal when a left wing party is in office. The opposite will occur when a right wing party is in office.Inflation may be the result of government spending programs that generally re-distribute money towards the financially less well off. Therefore these considerations should suggest that the political left wing should be particularly concerned with reducing unemployment and avoiding recessions, even at the cost of a slight potential rise in inflation.When looking at this relationship between unemployment and inflation it is important to look at the Phillips curve, where we can begin to see the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The Phillips curve is the trade off between inflation and unemployment. Unemployment will move along the x-axis, and inflation will run along the y-intercept. The short run Phillips curve is a downward sloping line, which demonstrates when unemployment increases, inflation will decrease. The long run Phillips curve is represented by a vertical line that shows us that in the long run unemployment remains relatively stable, the inflation rate will naturally increase over time. (Hibbs) 1977, Argues, that short run shifts along the short run Phillips curve are not of much concern because of expectation adjustments, this is very similar to the natural adjustment mechanism....

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