Rotating model of civilizations has a long post by historians , political theorists and anthropologists , and the general public . Writers as diverse as Vico and Hegel , Marx and Toynbee shared a common belief and assumption that human history was a kind of natural rhythm to it. There is a theory rather than the standard behind all this - that all societies inevitably will move through a number of stages , a kind of grand narrative of the rise and fall .
" Rome " biblical " the rise and fall of civilization ' story ( in the West anyway ) different disciplines have taken their own characteristic to this rise and fall, but with some resonances inherent strong . So , for example , economic ...view middle of the document...
" In this way , they work between order and chaos , and the " edge chaos " , and although it may seem stable and balance for long periods of time , they are in fact constantly adapt to maintain a general sense of stability . But there comes a moment when complex systems "go critical " A very small trigger can set off a " phase transition" from a benign equilibrium to a crisis . "
This is called the Sand Pile effect is , according to this model, often misunderstood and misrepresented by those who seek to explain past events . The basic problem is that the analysts who analyze such crises tend to explain the low-frequency , high-impact moments - wars , crashes, collapses - through a misunderstanding of the complexity and how it works. Instead of looking at the correlation between the events and the prevailing context , most analysts tried to explain the crisis in terms of sin , and long-term reasons . This is the " narrative fallacy " that have been identified in popular works such as The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb , and this leads to a much more cyclical , and perhaps more understandable , and a model of change.
Draw conclusions about the causal relationship is casual old habit . Take the First World War broke out a huge war in the summer of 1914 , to the surprise of almost everyone great . Before long, historians have developed a story line commensurate with the disaster : a treaty regulating the neutrality of Belgium, which was signed in 1839 , the decline of the Ottoman power in the Balkans dating back to the 1870s in , and the Germans and malevolent Navy began building in 1897 . There is a contemporary version of this fallacy traces the 9/11 attacks in 1966 to return to the implementation of the Egyptian government of Mr. Quttb, and Islamist writer for the Muslim Brotherhood . In fact, direct and triggers of a crisis are often sufficient to explain the sudden shift from a good balance of chaos bad . So , from his point of view :
World War I and was the cause in fact through a series of diplomatic miscalculations in the summer of 1914, the assets of a real 9/11 lie in the policies of the United States and Saudi Arabia in the 1990s ... most of the fat -tail phenomena that historians study are not at the height of the lines The story is long and inevitable ; instead, they represent the disturbances , and sometimes a complete breakdowns , of complex systems.
Therefore, we conclude that " understand how complex systems is an essential part of any strategy to anticipate and delay their failure ... " On the other hand , according to the student , and a profound misunderstanding of causal chains between policy and actions - what and where ' ignorance aggressive " - could lead to the creation of many of the black Swans : " like a child playing with a chemistry set ."
There is a lot of uncertainty in the application of ideas in the complexity of the problems of social, economic and political . What is clear , however, is that the creation of this...