The counterfactual that I will be engaging addresses what would have occurred if Saddam Hussein would not have invaded the small country of Kuwait. The United States foreign policy has been shaped by the timeline of the invasion of Kuwait. This counterfactual, using this introductory timeline, will then present information on theories for the United States sanction of establishing the coalition forces and how this would have affected the character of responsible countries. The counterfactual will initially cover a brief history of what led to the invasion of Kuwait and the justification that Saddam used, leading into the involvement of the United States in forcing Saddam to withdraw. Secondly, it will be addressing the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union and the theoretical impact on the international relations that may have lengthened the Cold War as a result. Additionally, I will be using the historical precedents that had already been set by Iraq in developing nuclear weapons and the relationships that have had been established with Saudi Arabia in addition to other nations.
This counterfactual will use the historical relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia in the event that Iraq would have developed nuclear weapons. The United States would still have deployed forces to Saudi Arabia to place a check on the Iraqi nuclear program, this would have differentiated international political order. If American military forces were still deployed in Saudi Arabia, the United States would have the compounding issue of contending with the growing threat of Osama bin Laden leading to the attack on 9/11. The 2003 invasion would not have occurred as Iraq would have been invaded by the United States in the 1990s as a result of Iraq developing nuclear capabilities. Following this hypothetical historical timeline, the United States as a hegemonic power, would have a greater relationship within the global community.
After a long and costly war, in both monetary and lives, with Iran from 1980-1988, Iraq sat with a decimated economy and a significant amount of debt. During the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq and Kuwait stood as allies against the Islamic Revolution in Iran, which not only threatened Iraq and Kuwait but the other Arab countries. Kuwait supported Iraq politically, and financially since Iraq’s income from the exports of oil was reduced severely with the continual raids by Iran. Iraq has had historical claim to Kuwait ever since Iraq was created as a nation-state after the Ottoman Empire(Khadduri & Ghareeb, p. 8-9). However, after the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq recognized the sovereignty of Kuwait all while still claiming their own sovereignty over the country.
In Military Lessons of the Gulf War, there were five main reasons that Iraq invaded Kuwait in August, 1990. First, Iraq had accumulated approximately $80 billion of debt, $65 billion that Kuwait would not forgive. Second, the foreign investments that Kuwait held made...